In July’s episode of the Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast Cherry Reynard and Daniel Casali discuss why stock markets could have momentum, even with a recession on the horizon. Fears over a deep global recession have eased, while expectations of future rate rises have also come down. The S&P 500 Index is now 20% higher than its level in October 2022, entering a bull market. Bull markets last an average of 5.5 years – and this one has been just nine months in length.
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The US S&P 500 Index is now 20% higher than its level in October 2022, marking the start of another bull market. Bull markets average 5.5 years in length, and this rally has lasted just nine months. This, combined with easing expectations of a global recession, may bring some momentum to stock markets in the second half of the year.
To date, the rally has been focused on technology stocks, with a particular concentration on companies benefiting from artificial intelligence. If sentiment sours on the AI theme, it could present a risk for markets.
However, there are signs that momentum is broadening out to the wider market. There is also a residual boost from the Covid-era policies, which has lifted household savings and could help support consumption.
The value of an investment may go down as well as up and you may get back less than you originally invested.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.