The Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast: a bear market rally, or the start of a new bull run?

In December’s episode of the Evelyn Partners Investment Podcast Cherry Reynard and Ben Seager-Scott discuss the reasons for the market’s recent rally, and whether it can persist into the new year. They also look at why bonds are back and could soon assume their traditional role in a portfolio – income generation, capital preservation and diversification. Finally, they ask whether the slowdown in the economy in 2023 will be shallow or severe.

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• There’s been a meaningful rally in equity markets since mid-October, fuelled by hopes that inflationary pressures are moderating. Resilient corporate earnings have also played a role in supporting markets. However, few believe stock markets have turned a corner permanently, with plenty of bad news still to digest in the year ahead
• On the other hand, bonds could be back. As yields have risen and markets have priced in higher rates, conventional government bonds have more appeal. Ultimately, they may be able to resume their traditional role in a portfolio – income generation, capital preservation and diversification
• There has been better news on US and European inflation, with some easing of inflationary pressures. While this has buoyed investors, it is unlikely to prompt a significant change of heart from the Federal Reserve – at least in the short term