Autumn Budget 2026: the key dates and signals to watch

This year’s Autumn Budget will be delivered in unusual circumstances.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey will have been in their roles for only a little over three months. The Budget will therefore be more than a routine update to the public finances. It will provide the first detailed indication of how the new government intends to turn its priorities into tax, spending and economic policy.

Much remains unknown, but the dates between now and 28 October should begin to bring the government’s plans, and the constraints facing it, into clearer focus.

13 August: the latest GDP figures

The Office for National Statistics will publish its first estimate of economic growth between April and June, alongside the monthly GDP estimate for June. The figures will provide an early indication of the economy inherited by the new Prime Minister and Chancellor.

Economic growth is a hugely important measure for the Budget, as it affects tax revenues, government borrowing and the amount of room available to the Chancellor. However, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will make its own assessment when it produces the official forecast accompanying the Budget.

19 August: inflation figures

The July inflation figures will provide another important part of the economic picture. Inflation influences household finances, government spending and expectations for interest rates. Further inflation data will follow on 16 September and 21 October.

9 September: Budget representations close

Businesses, professional bodies, charities and other organisations can submit policy representations to the Treasury ahead of the Budget. The submission portal will close at 11.59pm on Wednesday 9 September.

These representations do not determine policy, but they give organisations an opportunity to provide evidence and comment on existing government measures.

16 September: Parliament enters conference recess

The House of Commons is scheduled to enter its party conference recess on 16 September, returning on 12 October. This means much of the political debate during the second half of September will take place outside Parliament.

17 September: Bank of England decision

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its latest decision on interest rates. The decision, accompanying minutes and assessment of inflationary pressures could affect the wider financial environment in which the Budget is being prepared.

27 to 30 September: Labour Party Conference

Labour’s annual conference will take place in Liverpool, with the Chancellor’s speech scheduled for the Monday. The speeches made by Healey and Burnham are likely to provide the clearest public indication yet of the government’s priorities ahead of the Budget.

Conference announcements will not necessarily translate directly into Budget measures, however, the language used and the issues given prominence should provide important clues about the government’s developing economic programme.

1 October: electricity VAT reduction begins

The government has announced that VAT will be temporarily removed from domestic electricity bills from 1 October for the remainder of the financial year. The measure was one of Burnham’s first announcements as Prime Minister and was presented as immediate support for households facing cost-of-living pressures.

Its introduction may also demonstrate the kind of targeted intervention the government is prepared to consider before setting out its wider approach at the Budget.

12 October: Parliament returns

When MPs return from conference recess, there will be just over two weeks until the Budget. Political scrutiny is likely to intensify, although the most consequential decisions will by then be moving through the government and OBR forecasting process.

The OBR normally requires significant measures to be submitted before the fiscal event so that their economic and financial effects can be assessed. Measures capable of materially changing the economic forecast must typically be submitted just over a week before the Budget.

20 and 21 October: the final major data releases

The latest labour market figures will be published on 20 October. The following day will bring both September’s inflation figures and the latest public sector finance statistics. These will be among the final major official economic releases before Budget day.

The public finance figures will be particularly closely watched. They will show how borrowing and debt are developing compared with the OBR’s previous expectations, although the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre will ultimately depend on the new five-year forecast.

28 October: Budget day

John Healey will deliver his first Budget as Chancellor on Wednesday 28 October. The OBR will publish an updated Economic and fiscal outlook on the same day, setting out its forecasts for growth, inflation, borrowing, debt and government revenues.

The speech will provide the headline announcements. The accompanying documents will contain the detail needed to understand when measures take effect, who may be affected and how much they are expected to raise or cost.

Burnham has made clear that he wants his government to represent more than a change in leadership.

In his first speech as Prime Minister, he described the moment as a “circuit breaker for Britain” and promised “a new political model and a new economic model”.¹

Burnham has also emphasised the importance of collaboration between central, regional and local government, while the Chancellor has said the Budget will move money and power out of Westminster and into communities around Britain.² The government has also confirmed that mayors will begin retaining a greater share of locally generated revenue, starting with business rates, with a roadmap for income tax retention expected at the Budget.

This means devolution and regional growth may sit closer to the centre of the Budget than they have in previous fiscal events. However, Healey has said the Budget will comply with the government’s fiscal rules and retain a buffer against economic uncertainty.

The central question is therefore likely to be how the government reconciles its ambition for a new economic model with the practical limits imposed by borrowing, debt, inflation and economic growth.

Evelyn Partners will be following developments closely in the weeks ahead, with expert commentary, analysis and practical guidance before, during and after the Budget.

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¹ GOV.UK, Andy Burnham's first speech as Prime Minister, 20 July 2026

² GOV.UK, Chancellor letter to the Treasury Select Committee, 31 July 2026