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Megatrends
Which forces will shape investment markets over the next decade and beyond?
Megatrends are powerful, disruptive forces that shape economies, businesses and societies. They drive innovation, steer investment and create new ideas.
Identifying these trends helps guide us to opportunities – and away from risks. They steer us towards those sectors and industries with a clear runway of growth, enabling us to build better, future-proof investment portfolios.
4 megatrends will shape markets over the next decade
We’re at an inflection point today. The relative macroeconomic stability of the Great Moderation – which spanned the past four decades from 1980 to 2020 – is over and the years ahead are set to look very different.
We see four megatrends as shaping the next decade and beyond.
1. Shifting demographics
The global population hit 8 billion in 2022. This rising population is partly due to people living longer, with the number of people aged 65 and over increasing by 623 million in the past two decades alone. Yet the global fertility rate has halved since the 1950s.
As birth rates fall and populations age, the composition of the global population will change. This is particularly acute in Japan, where the working-age population is shrinking, but this phenomenon will impact multiple developed countries at the same time.
2. Changing world order
The current world order was thrashed out in the aftermath of World War II. But new and important economic powers, notably China, did not sign up for this framework and want the world’s economy to work differently.
This tension is likely to lead to a long-term realignment of the global economy, with new rules and new thinking. It will be a multi-polar world, rather than one focused on the US. This realignment will be felt across technology, supply chains and in the commodities markets.
3. Bumpy energy transition
Carbon emissions have increased sevenfold since the 1950s. Left unchecked, they could continue to increase exponentially, with dire consequences for the planet. Policymakers are scrambling to wind back the clock, to achieve ‘net zero’ emissions – levels last seen more than 200 years ago.
More than 80% of the world now operates under a net zero target. Meeting those targets requires substantial investment from governments and the private sector into alternative fuel sources and the infrastructure needed to support them.
4. Technological revolution
The reach of technology is increasingly vast. It acts as a catalyst for change across multiple industries, creating disruption, improving productivity and enhancing human know-how. Technology may also hold the solution to some of the world’s most intractable problems, from climate change to shifting demographics.
Understanding the influence of technology is vital for assessing any investment opportunity: it can uncover compelling growth opportunities, but also help avoid pitfalls, where companies are facing profound challenges to their business models. With an exciting mix of technology in the pipeline, we could be on the cusp of a technological revolution.
